{"success":true,"data":{"id":"bf9ba63c-8876-4e91-9f6e-a76956d841be","title":"'Not a run-of-the-mill El Nino.' Forecasters predict historic strength","summary":"We use cookies to enhance your web experience, measure our audience, and collect useful information that allows PBS and our partners to tailor our marketing efforts.","content":"We use cookies to enhance your web experience, measure our audience, and collect useful information that allows PBS and our partners to tailor our marketing efforts. Click Cookie Settings to set your preferences or view more in our[Privacy Policy](https://www.pbs.org/about/about-pbs/privacy-policy/)\n\nCookie Settings Reject Optional Cookies Accept Cookies\n\nSCETV is your local station. \n\n Change \n\n# Select Your Local Station\n\nThere are no stations available for your selected ZIP Code.\n\nSCETV Columbia, SC\n\nConfirm SCETV See More Stations\n\nBack\n\nPlease enter a valid ZIP Code\n\nPlease enter a valid State\n\n[Change your local station](javascript:void(0))\n\nChoose station\n\n## PBS IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY\n\nSCETV helps your community explore new worlds and ideas through programs that educate, inform and inspire. 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Forecasters predict historic strength\n\n[Science](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science) Jul 10, 2026 1:48 PM EDT \n\nWASHINGTON (AP) — An intensifying El Nino, nature's heat-releasing thermostat that spikes global temperatures, is heading to historically strong levels, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.\n\nIn its monthly update, NOAA said this year's El Nino, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific that alters weather patterns across the globe, has an 81% chance of becoming \"very strong\" — the top category available — by fall. It should rank among the most intense El Ninos since the weather agency started tracking them in 1950.\n\nIts biggest impacts — from droughts to downpours to heat waves — are likely to be most felt in the fall and winter, meteorologists said.\n\nThis El Nino, which formed only last month, already zipped past the weak stage and is now considered moderate with no indications of slowing its strengthening, the government forecast said. Ocean temperatures in key parts of the Pacific that help indicate the El Nino's strength are at or near record highs for this time of year, partly because it comes on top of ocean warming from human-caused climate change, meteorologists said.\n\n\"It's pretty extreme,\" said Emily Becker, a University of Miami scientist who works with the NOAA El Nino forecast team. \"Not unprecedented, but very unusual.\"\n\nBecker said it will rival the 1997-1998 El Nino, while other meteorologists predict this one could be even stronger. The World Bank said the El Nino that started in 1997 led to 23,000 deaths in weather disasters, increased poverty rates in some countries and cost governments as much as $45 billion.\n\n\"This is not a run-of-the-mill El Nino,\" said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. Not only is it already breaking records for the time of year, but unlike past super El Ninos, it is on top of considerable background warming from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. \"We might not expect to see the exact same impacts from this event as we have seen in historical ones.\"\n\nA very strong El Nino — based on ocean temperatures in parts of the Pacific — does not translate to even more intense extreme weather, but makes those conditions more likely, Becker said.\n\nIt increases the chances for most of the southern U.S. to be rainier in the winter, Becker said. It also boosts the likelihood of a warmer winter conditions for the northern United States and Canada.\n\nEl Nino usually dampens Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season forecasts, on Wednesday dramatically reduced its prediction for number of storms \"due to increased confidence in a strong or very strong El Nino.\" The forecasters predict overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic will be \"well below normal.\"\n\nGlobal impacts made more likely include a drier Indonesia and a warmer and wetter eastern Pacific, Becker said.\n\n\"El Nino also acts as a 'thermostat' for global climate by liberating years' worth of accumulated heat stored in the subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean and dumping it into the atmosphere, where it eventually dissipates–but not before warming the entire planet in the meantime,\" Swain wrote in a blog post.\n\nMany climate scientists are predicting that 2027 — because of pent up heat — will break the 2024 global high temperature record set by the last strong El Nino.\n\n\"A strong El Nino would raise the odds of dramatic new climate records over the next 6 to 12 months,\" said Zack Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central. It could give a taste of an even warmer world to come, he said.\n\n A free press is a cornerstone of a healthy democracy. \n\nSupport trusted journalism and civil dialogue.\n\nLeft: People cover themselves from the sun with an umbrella during a summer heat wave at Coney Island, Brooklyn, on July 4, 2026. Photo by Jordan Tovin/ Reuters\n\nBy Seth Borenstein, Associated Press\n\nBy Maria Ramirez Uribe\n\n## Go Deeper\n\nBy —\n\nSupport Provided By:[Learn more](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/articles/5000677869)\n\n### Educate your inbox\n\n1.   Read Jul 10[What you need to know about the cyclosporiasis outbreak](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-cyclosporiasis-outbreak)\n\n2.   Read Jul 10[What to know about the fatal shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo by ICE](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-to-know-about-the-fatal-shooting-of-lorenzo-salgado-araujo-by-ice)\n\n3.   Read Jul 10[WATCH: Nolan Wells' family calls for deeper probe into teen's death with attorney Ben Crump](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/watch-live-nolan-wells-family-calls-for-probe-into-teens-death-with-attorney-ben-crump)\n\n4.   Read Jul 03[Ohio town shocked by 16 kids found living in squalor 'right under our noses'](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/ohio-town-shocked-by-16-kids-found-living-in-squalor-right-under-our-noses)\n\n5.   Read Jul 10[Trump will let bipartisan housing bill become law without signing in protest over GOP voter ID law](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-will-let-bipartisan-housing-bill-become-law-without-signing-in-protest-over-gop-voter-id-law)\n\n[World](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world)Jul 10\n\nBy Costas Kantouris, Associated Press\n\nBy Regina Garcia Cano, Associated Press\n\nBy Suman Naishadham, Associated Press\n\nBy Tim Reynolds, Obed Lamy, Associated Press\n\n[Nation](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation)Jul 10\n\nBy Hannah Schoenbaum, Matthew Brown, Associated Press\n\n[Politics](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics)Jul 10\n\nBy Will Weissert, Associated Press\n\nBy Brian Melley, Associated Press\n\n[Science](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science)Jul 10","source_name":"PBS NewsHour","source_url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/not-a-run-of-the-mill-el-nino-forecasters-predict-historic-strength","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/not-a-run-of-the-mill-el-nino-forecasters-predict-historic-strength","author":"Seth Borenstein, Associated Press","author_name":"Seth Borenstein, Associated Press","published_at":"2026-07-10T17:48:25.000Z","publication_date":"2026-07-10T17:48:25.000Z","image_url":null,"category":"world","topic":"world","tags":[],"political_bias":null,"bias_score":null,"confidence_score":null,"credibility_score":null,"factual_quality":null,"reading_time":6,"word_count":1013,"view_count":0,"breaking":false,"breaking_news":false,"ai_analysis":null,"fact_check_status":"unverified","archive_status":"hot"}}